THE ECONOMY: GLOOM & BOOM
Thenew APC party government would make their ‘first impression’ in 2016. Citing the persistent slowdown of the Chinese economy, looming recession in Russia and continuing weakness in the Eurozone,the World Bank projected Nigeria’s GDP growth rate for 2016 at 3.7% but the government with a lean but bullish posture forecasts 4.37% with a N6.08 trillion budget (N30.05 billion above 2015 budget).As the budget implementation takes off from the middle of Q1, we expect advertisers who scaled-down their investment in 2015 cautiously increasing their weighting across less expensive andmeasurable media. Digital and Radio would be the most favouredbeneficiary of the uptake. We see OOH facing a tougher year in 2016.
As states mobilize to increase IGR, new taxes and tougher conditions awaits suppliers and by extensions advertisers and agencies. As more pay TV operators increase their footprints, subscription rate would continue to crash,more terrestrial audience move to pay TV. In general, prevailing lower interest rates would provide respite for suppliers and agencies with huge leverage. Media rates are expected to be stable in the long term of 2016.
BANKING SECTOR: IT’S TIME FOR REAL BANKING
The change in government shook the banking industry to its foundations. First was the introduction of TSA (No more rent-seeking for idle government deposits). Drastic FX restrictions (caused by the paucity of foreign earnings from oil) and the CBN’s cancellation of COTs on all banking transactions as from January 1, 2016 will make the banking sector the toughest category for 2016.
Many banks will have to refocus their marketing and service delivery systems for efficiency. With an attractive interest rates to businesses and borrowers, we expect some players doing away with toxic assets and diverting attention to the real sector of the economy. All these efforts to fight for their lives will see the banking sector investing in marketing campaigns to adapt to the new normal.
eCOMMERCE: MAKE OR BREAK
2015 was the year of the smart phone. 2016 will be the year of eCommerce. We would see more online retailers coming into the scene. The year on year success of the category’s end of year sales events (Black Friday) proves that eCommerce has come to stay in Nigeria. In 2016, well run eCommerce sites with huge but depleting investment capital will increase their CAPEX on enterprise logistics value chain, fulfillment technologies while cutting down on OPEX to reduce their burn rate, gain efficiency by trimming manpower (right-sizing) and attracting more talents to drive ‘etail’ innovations.
Many would review their business models by getting out of offerings with less or no margin. eCommerce sites would lock horns with many brick and mortar retailers who in the long run of the year are expected to synergise with eCommerce to sell across digital channels. eCommerce companies will play a major role in the advertising sector across Radio, Digital and TV in that order. Their exposure to OOH would be event and season driven.
mCOMMERCE: THE NEW KID ON THE BLOCK
The year 2016 will further cement mobile, banking and telecoms integration that pervaded the tail end of 2015. NFC and cardless payment services would take center stage. More startups are expected to open shops in the mobile payment category. We see the year 2016 heralding the extinction mobile airtime recharge cards. Mobile money vendors and other relevant operators would put on their thinking caps to increase their offerings.
Major beneficiaries of this shift are retailers whose exposure to cash transactions would decrease. Financial engineers would get creative to develop consumption/purchase-linked credit product to benefit from the value chain. The payment category is expected to contribute majorly to the industry ad spend by the end of the year.
TELECOMS: TOUGH, ROUGH OR TUMBLE
If 2015 was a rough year for telecom companies defined by fines and stricter regulation, 2016 will be a defining moment in their life cycle. Stiff competition in 2015 sent ARPUs to an all year low. Fast-spaced adoption of smart phones alongside the niceties of OTT apps enjoyed by customers have further weakened revenues of telecom brands who placed their bets on increased data subscriber base to hedge against falling voice revenue.
As more data providers open shop across LAP and Tier 2 markets, in 2016, we expect data subscription rates to further crash due to intense competition and the scrabble to acquire new customers and gain loyalty. In the long term, telecom vendors with huge investment in voice would cut ATL advertising budget to push retail and trade marketing for data services. In their quest to develop new revenue streams many ideas would be exploited that will still keep the sector in the forefront of the ad industry’s billing.
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